The Canadian Imagination

What it means to be Canadian; examining and reworking Canada as a nation.

Tuesday, June 29, 2004

Final results

(pending recounts, of which there will be many):

Liberal minority (135), New Conservative opposition (99), with Bloc Québecois (54) and New Democrats (19) holding the balance of power. One independent seat.

Liberal: 135 (36.7% popular vote)
(Atlantic Canada 22, Québec 21, Ontario 75, Prairies/Territories 7, Alberta 2, British Columbia 8)

New Conservative: 99 (29.6% popular vote)
(Atlantic Canada 7, Québec 0, Ontario 24, Prairies/Territories 20, Alberta 26, British Columbia 22)

New Democratic Party: 19 (15.7% popular vote)
(Atlantic Canada 3, Québec 0, Ontario 7, Prairies/Territories 4, Alberta 0, British Columbia 5)

Bloc Québecois: 54 (12.4% popular vote)
(Québec 54)

Independent: 1 (British Columbia)

Green Party: 0 (4.3% popular vote -- making them an official party for funding purposes)

The two regional interests I caught within five and two seats seats respectively, and in totalling the Liberal and NDP results (as the two major non-regional, non-ethnographic interest parties), I was within eight seats there. Given the last few polls (which suggested some extremely tight races in Ontario), there were two options: undecided voters were either going to vote more heavily for the Liberals by way of "protecting" them (and avoiding a Conservative government); or they were going to vote NDP and other fringe parties. I guessed the second, but it was the first which happened.

Still, considering I went against all the polls in predicting as I did (those predicted a Conservative minority or majority), not too unreasonable for a first written attempt, I think.

Interesting equation:

155 ridings required for control of government
Liberals (135) + NDP (19) = 154
Conservatives (99) + Bloc Québecois (54) = 153
Independent = 1

Interesting times ahead. They might even require ... compromise.

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