The Canadian Imagination

What it means to be Canadian; examining and reworking Canada as a nation.

Saturday, January 07, 2006

New Brunswick - predictions

Quick bird's eye estimate, in case I don't get to the slightly-more-detailed riding-by-riding analysis. Commentary forthcoming for all races, just as soon as I find time to transcribe it!


13001 Acadie - Bathurst - NDP (50-55%)
13002 Beauséjour - Liberal (35-40% - barely!)
13003 Fredericton - Conservative (45-50%, overturning Andy Scott)
13004 Fundy Royal - Conservative (55-60%)
13005 Madawaska - Restigouche - (!) three-way race. I am calling it (1) NDP (2) Conservative (3) Liberals, but it will be a separation of about 5% in total. Upset.
13006 Miramichi - Liberal (40-45% ... barely)
13007 Moncton - Riverview - Dieppe - Conservative (30-35% barely, given it by vote support toward NDP. Liberals a tight second. A strong candidate would have pulled this one toward either Liberal or Conservative.)
13008 New Brunswick Southwest - Conservative (60-65%)
13009 Saint John - Liberal (40-45%, due to strategic vote shifting)
13010 Tobique - Mactaquac - Liberal (40-45%, due to strategic vote shifting)

Running Total
Conservative: 10
Liberal: 18
NDP: 4

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