The Canadian Imagination

What it means to be Canadian; examining and reworking Canada as a nation.

Friday, January 06, 2006

Nova Scotia - predictions

Quick bird's eye estimate, in case I don't get to the slightly-more-detailed riding-by-riding analysis. Commentary forthcoming for all races, just as soon as I find time to transcribe it!

12001 Cape Breton - Canso - Liberal (45-50%)
12002 Central Nova - Conservative (50-55%) [MacKay)
12003 Dartmouth - Cole Harbour - Liberal (barely! with NDP a tight second - reactionary 35-40%)
12004 Halifax - NDP (40-45%, but only because of Alexa MacDonough and a newbie Liberal)
12005 Halifax West - Liberal (40-45%, with NDP a tight second)
12006 Kings - Hants - Liberal (40-45%, with Conservative a very tight second) (Brison)
12007 Cumberland - Colchester - Musquodoboit Valley - Conservative (50-55%)
12008 Sackville - Eastern Shore - NDP (45-50%)
12009 South Shore - St. Margaret's - Conservative (40-45%)
12010 Sydney - Victoria - Liberal (35-40%, fighting off the NDP close behind them)
12011 West Nova - Conservative (40-45% - the only one where the incumbent doesn't win)

12001 Cape Breton - Canso

Since I am working my way from east to west in these posts, I seem to be using the term "low profile" quite a bit: which means basically that very little about these politicians, beyond the usual announcements expected of an active MP, has struck the national media or the blogosphere. In general, such relative silence tends to indicate regional rather than national influence, together with no major skeletons in the closet (or at least, none that a dedicated mudslinging blogger sees as worthy of his or her time). I begin anew in the new year in Cape Breton, Nova Scotia: to discover yet another such campaign in motion, with yet another low-profile Liberal candidate: only now we have entered the edges of NDP territory. If the shadow of Gomery and now of Dingwall (who is a former Nova Scotia MP) is to draw blood here, the beneficiary will be, not the Conservatives or the Greens, but the NDP. Still, this riding at least seems safe enough.

(Rodger Cuzner, Liberal: 45-50%)

Running Total
Conservative: 6
Liberal: 14
NDP: 2


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