The Canadian Imagination

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Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Ontario - predictions

Quick bird's eye estimate, in case I don't get to the slightly-more-detailed riding-by-riding analysis. Commentary forthcoming for all races, just as soon as I find time to transcribe it!


SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO

Summary:

Key sore points are social values / same sex marriage (the Christian Heritage Party is strongest in this area) and the gun registry. The sponsorship scandal is relevant insofar as it demonstrates the Liberals' moral lack and fiscal wrongheadedness. (A bit ironic that last, considering that the current Liberal prime minister was responsible for the first zero-deficit and then black-ink budgets in several decades: which has not changed since he took office.) Conservative libertarian in the rural areas, but a serious fight in the cities. Name recognition may make a difference in a couple of battles.

35013 Chatham-Kent—Essex

Liberal MP Jerry Pickard has retired, which saves him having to battle repeating Conservative candidate Dave Van Kesteren over the same sex marriage issue, during a session of scandal and in the continuing shadow of an unpopular gun registry. That unhappy task falls to Liberal Jim Comiskey. The Liberals have no chance of holding onto this one.

(Dave Van Kesteren, Conservative: 55-60%)


35026 Bruce—Grey-Owen Sound

Just the core four (outside Québec) in this one, which means that the Christian Heritage Party won't be pulling votes from the Conservatives. In this election, that 2% could make all the difference. The riding came a comfortable 3000-odd votes ahead of the second-place Liberals, who certainly are not going to make up the ground at this time. Conservative incumbent Larry Miller's seat is safe.

(Larry Miller, Conservative: 50-55%)


35020 Elgin—Middlesex—London

The issues are those of the other rural SW Ontario ridings. Conservative incumbent Joe Preston has an easy victory ahead of him.

(Joe Preston, Conservative: 50-55%)


35021 Essex
In the previous election this one was a tight classic battle between Conservative MP Jeff Watson and Liberal former MP Susan Whelan (who, in addition to her own cabinet experience, has a political heritage in the region: her father used to be Minister of Agriculture). Unfortunately, it just isn't the year to be Liberal in a SW Ontario rural riding, Susan.

Jeff Watson, Conservative: 37-42%)



35042 London - Fanshawe - Liberals (30-35%, but three-way recount Conservatives and NDP)
35043 London North Centre - Liberal (40-45%)
35044 London West - Liberal (40-45%, Conservatives close second)
35046 Lambton - Kent - Middlesex - Conservatives (45-50%)
35078 Sarnia - Lambton - Conservatives (35-40%, Liberals very close second)
35101 Windsor - Tecumseh - NDP (35-40%)
35102 Windsor West - NDP (40-45%)


Will sort the rest into regions when I get the commentary up.


35002 Algoma - Manitoulin - Kapuskasing - Liberals (35-40%)
35004 Barrie - Conservative (45-50%)
35009 Brant - Liberal (35-40%)
35011 Cambridge - Conservative (40-45%)
35012 Carleton - Mississippi Milles - Conservative (50-55%)
35025 Glengarry - Prescott - Russell - Conservative (50-55%)
35027 Guelph - Liberal (40-45%)
35028 Haldimand - Norfolk - Conservative (45-50%)
35029 Haliburton - Kawartha Lakes - Brock - Conservative (40-45%)
35030 Halton - Conservative (45-50%)
35034 Huron - Bruce - Liberal (45-50%)
35035 Kenora - Liberals (30-35%, NDP very close second)
35036 Kingston and the Islands - Liberal (45-50%)
35037 Kitchener Centre - Liberal (40-45%)
35038 Kitchener - Conestoga - Liberal (40-45%)
35039 Kitchener - Waterloo - Liberal (45-50%)
35040 Lanark - Frontenac - Lennox and Addington - Conservative (50-55%)
35041 Leeds - Grenville - Conservative (50-55%)
35052 Nepean - Carleton - Conservative (45-50%)
35054 Niagara Falls - Conservative (45-50%)
35055 Niagara West - Glanbrook (45-50%)
35056 Nickel Belt - Liberal (45-50%)
35057 Nipissing - Timiskaming - Liberal (45-50%)
35058 Northumberland - Quinte West - Conservative (40-45%, Liberals close second)
35062 Ottawa Centre - NDP (35-40%, Liberals close second)
35063 Ottawa - Orléans - Liberal (40-45%, Conservatives very close second)
35064 Ottawa South - Conservative (40-45%, Liberals very close second)
35065 Ottawa - Vanier - Liberals (40-45%)
35066 Ottawa West - Nepean - Conservative (40-45%, Liberals very close second)
35067 Oxford - Conservatives (45-50%)
35069 Parry Sound - Muskoka - Liberals (40-45%)
35070 Perth - Wellington - Conservatives (45-50%)
35071 Peterborough - Liberals (35-40%, Conservatives very close second)
35073 Prince Edward - Hastings - Conservative (40-45%)
35074 Renfrew - Nipissing - Pembroke - Conservative (40-45%)
35079 Sault Ste. Marie - NDP (35-40%, Liberals second)
35085 Simcoe - Grey - Conservatives (45-50%)
35086 Simcoe North - Conservatives (45-50%)
35088 Sudbury - Liberals (35-40%)
35089 Thornhill - Liberals (40-45%)
35090 Thunder Bay - Rainy River - Liberals (35-40%)
35091 Thunder Bay - Superior North - Liberals (35-40%)
35092 Timmins - James Bay - NDP (40-45%)

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