The Canadian Imagination

What it means to be Canadian; examining and reworking Canada as a nation.

Sunday, January 08, 2006

Quebec - predictions

Quick bird's eye estimate, in case I don't get to the slightly-more-detailed riding-by-riding analysis. Commentary forthcoming for all races, just as soon as I find time to transcribe it!


(The shock on some of these will be the surprisingly strong Conservative showing ... which will allow the Bloc to take more seats than it might otherwise have. Anything "very close" I suspect will require a recount: likely to be < 5% apart.)

Abitibi - Baie-James - Nunavik - Eeyou - BQ (35-40% -- could be a three-way-race due to the handgun issue)
Abitibi - Témiscamingue - BQ (35-40% -- again, handgun issue)
Ahuntsic - BQ (40-45%)
Alfred - Pellan - BQ (40-45%)
Argenteuil - Papineau - Mirabel - BQ (55-60%, Conservatives second)
Bas-Richelieu - Nicolet - Bécancour - BQ (55-60%, Conservatives second)
Beauce - Conservative (55-60%, BQ second)
Beauharnois - Salaberry - BQ (35-40%, Conservatives very close second)
Beauport - Limoilou - BQ (40-45%, Conservatives very close second)
Berthier - Maskinongé - BQ (50-55%, Conservatives second)
Bourassa - Liberals (35-40%, BQ very close second - very polarised riding)
Brome - Missisquoi - BQ (40-45%, Conservatives second)
Brossard - La Prairie - BQ (30-35% -- but only because Conservative surge will split the federalist vote, Liberals / Conservatives close to tied for second - might require a recount)
Chambly - Borduas - BQ (55-60%)
Charlesbourg - Haute-Saint-Charle - BQ (50-55%, Conservatives second)
Châteauguay - Saint-Constant - BQ (50-55%, Conservatives second)
Chicoutimi - Le Fjord - BQ (45-50%, federalist vote split)
Compton - Stanstead - Conservative (35-40%)
Drummond - BQ (50-55%, Conservatives second)
Gaspésie - Îles-de-la-Madeleine - BQ (50-55%, Conservatives second)
Gatineau - BQ (40-45%, Liberals second)
Haute-Gaspésie - La Mitis - Matane - Matapédia - BQ (45-50%, Conservatives possibly a close second)
Hochelaga - BQ (60-65%)
Honoré-Mercier - BQ (40-45%)
Hull - Aylmer - Liberals (30-35%, BQ AND Conservatives close behind: three-way recount)
Jeanne - Le Ber - BQ (35-40%, Liberals close second)
Joliette - BQ (55-60%)
Jonquière - Alma - Conservative (40-45%, BQ very close second)
La Pointe-de-l'Île - BQ (65-70%)
Lac-Saint-Louis - Liberals (40-45%, Conservatives second)
LaSalle - Émard - BQ (40-45% ! Liberals AND Conservatives second -- Paul Martin unseated due to Conservative surge)
Laurentides - Labelle - BQ (55-60%)
Laurier - Sainte-Marie - BQ (55-60%)
Laval - BQ (50-55%)
Laval - Les Îles - BQ (35-40%, Liberals very close second)
Lévis - Bellechasse - BQ (35-40%, Conservatives very close second)
Longueuil - Pierre-Boucher - BQ (55-60%)
Lotbinière - Chutes-de-la-Chaudière - Conservative (40-45%, BQ very close second)
Louis-Hébert - BQ (40-45%)
Louis - Saint-Laurent - Conservative (50-55%)
Manicouagan - BQ (50-55%)
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin - BQ (55-60%)
Mégantic - L'Érable - BQ (35-40%, Conservatives very close second)
Montcalm - BQ (65-70%)
Montmagny - L'Islet - Kamouraska - Rivière-du-Loup - BQ (55-60%)
Montmorency - Charlevoix - Haute-Côte-Nord - BQ (50-55%, Conservatives second)
Mount Royal - Liberal (55-60%, Conservatives second)
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce - Lachine - Conservatives (30-35%, Liberals close second)
Outremont - BQ (30-35%, Liberals AND NDP close second. A mess :) )
Papineau - BQ (40-45% -- unseating Pierre Pettigrew)
Pierrefonds - Dollard - Liberal (35-40%, Conservatives very close second)
Pontiac - BQ (30-35%, Conservatives very close second)
Portneuf - Jacques-Cartier - INDEPENDENT (André Arthur - 35-40%, BQ and Conservatives fighting it out for second place)
Québec - BQ (50-55%)
Repentigny - BQ (70-75%)
Richmond - Arthabaska - Conservatives (35-40%, BQ very close second)
Rimouski-Neigette - Témiscouata - Les Basques - BQ (35-40%, Conservatives second)
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles - BQ (60-65%)
Rivière-du-Nord - BQ (60-65%)
Roberval - Lac-Saint-Jean - BQ (40-45%, Conservatives second)
Rosemont - La Petite-Patrie - BQ (60-65%)
Saint-Bruno - Saint-Hubert - BQ (50-55%)
Saint-Hyacinthe - Bagot - BQ (45-50%, Conservatives second)
Saint-Jean - BQ (55-60%)
Saint-Lambert - BQ (50-55%)
Saint-Laurent - Cartierville - Liberals (45-50%)
Saint-Léonard - Saint-Michel - Liberals (30-35%, Conservatives AND BQ very close second)
Saint-Maurice - Champlain - BQ (45-50%, Conservatives second)
Shefford - BQ (35-40%, Liberals second, Conservatives third)
Sherbrooke - BQ (55-60%)
Terrebonne - Blainville - BQ (65-70%)
Trois-Rivières - BQ (45-50%, Conservatives second)
Vaudreuil-Soulanges - BQ (35-40%, Conservatives and Liberals fighting it out for second)
Verchères - Les Patriotes - BQ (65-70%)
Westmount - Ville-Marie - Liberals (35-40%, Conservatives a close second)

(I'll add it up later, unless some helpful soul wants to do the running total in the comments.)

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